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Ebbsfleet Utd vs Hampton e R. Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Ebbsfleet Utd

PPG 2.05 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hampton e R.

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.7%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.3%1-18.4%1-23.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.4%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-17.4%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.7% 78.1% 1.28 -12.1%

Draw 18.0% 21.7% 4.60 -17.2%

Away win 13.2% 10.6% 9.40 +24.1%

Over 2.5 62.1% 63.7% 1.57 -2.5%

Over 3.5 39.9% 40.8% 2.45 -2.2%

BTTS 53.6% 58.8% 1.70 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.6%

H 69% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ebbsfleet Utd2.3

Hampton e R.0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EBBSFLEET UTD · PPG 2.05

HAMPTON E R. · PPG 1.09

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.05), Away AVERAGE (1.09) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ebbsfleet Utd (H) 68.7%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -12.1%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -17.2%

Hampton e R. (A) 13.2%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ebbsfleet Utd face Hampton e R. in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ebbsfleet Utd a 69% chance, the draw 18% and Hampton e R. 13%, so Ebbsfleet Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Ebbsfleet Utd and 0.9 for Hampton e R. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ebbsfleet Utd are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.09 for Hampton e R.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 4-0.

Ebbsfleet Utd vs Hampton e R. Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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