Today / HB T. B vs IF Fuglafjordur

HB T. B vs IF Fuglafjordur Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

HB T. B
PPG 0.50 · HOME
1 – 1
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
IF Fuglafjordur
PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.6%0-24.0%0-32.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.1%1-18.8%1-27.5%1-34.3%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.1%3-15.3%3-24.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.8%4+-23.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 42.2%
Draw 23.0%
Away win 34.9%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 48.7%
BTTS 62.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1
xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.5%

H 42% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%
#2 2–1 8.3%
#3 1–2 7.5%
#4 2–2 7.1%
#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HB T. B1.9
IF Fuglafjordur1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HB T. B · PPG 0.50

IF FUGLAFJORDUR · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...
48%
CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.17) strong but model favors Home (P=42.2%)

Win probability 1X2

HB T. B (H) 42.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
IF Fuglafjordur (A) 34.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

HB T. B face IF Fuglafjordur on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HB T. B a 42% chance, the draw 23% and IF Fuglafjordur 35%, so HB T. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for HB T. B and 1.7 for IF Fuglafjordur (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HB T. B are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.17 for IF Fuglafjordur. This match finished 1-1.

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