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Dorking vs Bath City Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Dorking

PPG 2.45 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bath City

PPG 0.68 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.2% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.4%1-16.0%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-18.5%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.1%4+-111.4%4+-24.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.2% 83.3% 1.20 -5.0%

Draw 13.0% 18.5% 5.40 -29.8%

Away win 7.8% 8.3% 12.00 -6.4%

Over 2.5 70.5% 66.7% 1.50 +5.8%

Over 3.5 49.4% 45.5% 2.20 +8.7%

BTTS 52.0% 51.3% 1.95 +1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.0%

H 79% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dorking2.8

Bath City0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.5% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DORKING · PPG 2.45

BATH CITY · PPG 0.68

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.45), Away POOR (0.68) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dorking (H) 79.2%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -5.0%

Draw 13.0%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -29.8%

Bath City (A) 7.8%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dorking face Bath City in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dorking a 79% chance, the draw 13% and Bath City 8%, so Dorking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Dorking and 0.8 for Bath City (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dorking are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 0.68 for Bath City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Dorking vs Bath City Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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