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Dagenham e R. vs Weston-s.-Mare Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Dagenham e R.

PPG 1.68 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Weston-s.-Mare

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.9%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.0%1-112.6%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.8%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 28.2% 3.55 +52.6%

Draw 26.4% 30.3% 3.30 -12.9%

Away win 30.6% 51.3% 1.95 -40.3%

Over 2.5 46.9% 52.6% 1.90 -10.9%

Over 3.5 25.3% 30.8% 3.25 -17.8%

BTTS 51.4% 58.8% 1.70 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.4%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 0–1 8.9%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 0–0✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dagenham e R.1.4

Weston-s.-Mare1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DAGENHAM E R. · PPG 1.68

WESTON-S.-MARE · PPG 1.32

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.68) > Away AVERAGE (1.32)

Win probability 1X2

Dagenham e R. (H) 43.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +52.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.9%

Weston-s.-Mare (A) 30.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -40.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dagenham e R. face Weston-s.-Mare in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dagenham e R. a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Weston-s.-Mare 31%, so Dagenham e R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dagenham e R. and 1.1 for Weston-s.-Mare (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dagenham e R. are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.32 for Weston-s.-Mare. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Dagenham e R. vs Weston-s.-Mare Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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