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Isloch vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

Isloch

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Vitebsk

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.5%0-112.7%0-23.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.9%1-111.8%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.7%2-15.5%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.0%3-11.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 52.4% 1.91 -20.2%

Draw 35.1% 31.3% 3.20 +12.3%

Away win 23.1% 27.0% 3.70 -8.7%

Over 2.5 25.8% 46.9% 2.13 -27.0%

Over 3.5 6.5% 27.6% 3.62 -45.9%

BTTS 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 42% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.5%

#2 1–0 20.9%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Isloch0.9

Vitebsk0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 6.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ISLOCH · PPG 2.00

VITEBSK · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=41.8%

Win probability 1X2

Isloch (H) 41.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -20.2%

Draw 35.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +12.3%

Vitebsk (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Isloch face Vitebsk in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Isloch a 42% chance, the draw 35% and Vitebsk 23%, so Isloch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Isloch and 0.6 for Vitebsk (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Isloch are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Isloch vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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