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Skiljebo vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 12:30

Skiljebo

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gute

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.7%0-21.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.4%1-17.0%1-24.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-19.0%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.7%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-19.2%4+-25.9%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 60.6% 1.65 -8.8%

Draw 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

Away win 22.0% 24.4% 4.10 -5.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 54.0% 48.8% 2.05 +10.7%

BTTS 59.9% 70.4% 1.42 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 55% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1✓ 7.0%

#3 3–1 7.7%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skiljebo2.6

Gute1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SKILJEBO · PPG 2.50

GUTE · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Skiljebo (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -8.8%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.3%

Gute (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skiljebo face Gute in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skiljebo a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Gute 22%, so Skiljebo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Skiljebo and 1.3 for Gute (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skiljebo are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.75 for Gute. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Skiljebo vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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