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Chippenham vs Hornchurch Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Chippenham

PPG 1.59 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hornchurch

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.1%0-25.7%0-33.5%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.1%1-19.5%1-28.8%1-35.5%1-4+3.9%2 2-04.0%2-17.4%2-26.9%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.1%3-13.9%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 23.8% 4.20 +37.3%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -19.7%

Away win 44.9% 58.8% 1.70 -23.7%

Over 2.5 66.4% 58.8% 1.70 +12.9%

Over 3.5 44.6% 37.0% 2.70 +20.4%

BTTS 66.7% 61.7% 1.62 +8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

A 45% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chippenham1.6

Hornchurch1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIPPENHAM · PPG 1.59

HORNCHURCH · PPG 1.59

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.59), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Chippenham (H) 32.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +37.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -19.7%

Hornchurch (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chippenham face Hornchurch in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chippenham a 33% chance, the draw 22% and Hornchurch 45%, so Hornchurch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chippenham and 1.9 for Hornchurch (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chippenham are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.59 for Hornchurch. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Chippenham vs Hornchurch Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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