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Boljan vs Galtabäcks Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 12:00

Boljan

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Galtabäcks

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.1%0-24.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.9%1-19.4%1-27.5%1-34.0%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.3%3-15.3%3-24.3%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.7%4+-23.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 2.30 +0.1%

Draw 23.5% 3.75 -7.1%

Away win 33.0% 2.50 -17.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 45.3% 2.05 -7.1%

BTTS 61.6% 1.36 -16.2%

Win probability 1X2

Boljan (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +0.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.1%

Galtabäcks (A) 33.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 50.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0✓ 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boljan1.8

Galtabäcks1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLJAN · PPG 1.33

GALTABÄCKS · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.75)

Match Preview & Prediction

Boljan face Galtabäcks in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boljan a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Galtabäcks 33%, so Boljan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Boljan and 1.6 for Galtabäcks (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boljan are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Galtabäcks. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Boljan vs Galtabäcks Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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