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Chesham Utd vs Chelmsford City Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Chesham Utd

PPG 1.77 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chelmsford City

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.5%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.0%1-110.4%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-16.2%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.5%4+-22.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 42.0% 2.38 +29.7%

Draw 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -23.8%

Away win 23.1% 38.2% 2.62 -39.5%

Over 2.5 58.7% 58.8% 1.70 -0.2%

Over 3.5 36.3% 36.4% 2.75 -0.2%

BTTS 58.2% 64.5% 1.55 -9.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.2%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chesham Utd1.9

Chelmsford City1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHESHAM UTD · PPG 1.77

CHELMSFORD CITY · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.77) > Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Chesham Utd (H) 54.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +29.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.8%

Chelmsford City (A) 23.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -39.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chesham Utd face Chelmsford City in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chesham Utd a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Chelmsford City 23%, so Chesham Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Chesham Utd and 1.2 for Chelmsford City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chesham Utd are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.45 for Chelmsford City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Chesham Utd vs Chelmsford City Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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