Chesham Utd vs Chelmsford City Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South South - 45 The Meadow· Chesham Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Chesham Utd PPG 1.77

0-2 MISS

Chelmsford City PPG 1.45

Home· +29.7% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Chesham Utd face Chelmsford City in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chesham Utd a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Chelmsford City 23%, so Chesham Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Chesham Utd and 1.2 for Chelmsford City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chesham Utd are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.45 for Chelmsford City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.5%

Odds: 2.38 EV: +29.7%

Draw 22.4%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -23.8%

Away 23.1%

Odds: 2.62 EV: -39.5%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.7% Odds: 1.70 -0.2%

Over 3.5 36.3% Odds: 2.75 -0.2%

BTTS 58.2% Odds: 1.55 -9.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Chesham Utd

1.89

Chelmsford City

1.16

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -0.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.77) > Away AVERAGE (1.45)