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Atmosfera vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 12:00

Atmosfera

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Garliava

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.2%0-27.8%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.0%1-112.1%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.1%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.8%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 44.4% 2.25 -28.0%

Draw 25.9% 27.8% 3.60 -4.1%

Away win 42.2% 39.2% 2.55 +7.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 28.5% 41.2% 2.43 -18.4%

BTTS 54.4% 67.1% 1.49 -18.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.4%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atmosfera1.2

Garliava1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATMOSFERA · PPG 0.80

GARLIAVA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Atmosfera (H) 32.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -28.0%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.1%

Garliava (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atmosfera face Garliava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atmosfera a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Garliava 42%, so Garliava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atmosfera and 1.5 for Garliava (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atmosfera are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Garliava. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Atmosfera vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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