Today / Foshan Nanshi vs Dingnan

Foshan Nanshi vs Dingnan Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Foshan Nanshi
PPG 0.25 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Dingnan
PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-113.0%0-29.5%0-34.7%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.1%2-16.0%2-24.4%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 27.9%
Draw 27.6%
Away win 44.6%
Over 2.5 47.6%
Over 3.5 22.7%
BTTS 51.6%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.6%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%
#2 0–1 13.0%
#3 0–0 8.8%
#4 0–2 9.5%
#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Foshan Nanshi1.0
Dingnan1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FOSHAN NANSHI · PPG 0.25

DINGNAN · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Foshan Nanshi (H) 27.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 27.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Dingnan (A) 44.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Foshan Nanshi face Dingnan on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Foshan Nanshi a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Dingnan 45%, so Dingnan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Foshan Nanshi and 1.5 for Dingnan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Foshan Nanshi are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 2.33 for Dingnan.

PredictVantage

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