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Helges vs Lidingo Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Helges

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lidingo

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-110.4%0-29.4%0-35.7%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.0%1-110.9%1-29.9%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.1%2-15.7%2-25.1%2-33.1%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% 31.3% 3.20 -14.5%

Draw 25.0% 25.6% 3.90 -1.5%

Away win 51.4% 52.6% 1.90 -2.3%

Over 2.5 54.5% 70.4% 1.42 -22.6%

Over 3.5 32.0% 48.8% 2.05 -34.4%

BTTS 54.2% 71.4% 1.40 -24.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -22.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.2%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2✓ 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helges1.0

Lidingo1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HELGES · PPG 0.75

LIDINGO · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Helges (H) 23.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.5%

Lidingo (A) 51.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helges face Lidingo in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helges a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Lidingo 51%, so Lidingo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Helges and 1.8 for Lidingo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helges are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.60 for Lidingo. This match finished 1-2.

Helges vs Lidingo Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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