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Minija vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Minija

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tauras

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.1%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.1%1-15.9%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.2%2-18.5%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-18.1%3-23.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.0%4+-111.6%4+-24.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.5% 61.7% 1.62 +9.3%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 10.1% 22.2% 4.50 -32.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 57.8% 1.73 +10.5%

Over 3.5 50.4% 34.7% 2.88 +45.1%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 68% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 3–0 9.7%

#3 2–1✓ 8.5%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minija2.9

Tauras0.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MINIJA · PPG 3.00

TAURAS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Minija (H) 67.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +9.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Tauras (A) 10.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minija face Tauras in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minija a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Tauras 10%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Minija and 0.8 for Tauras (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minija are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Tauras. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Minija vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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