Today / Belarus - Premier League / Belshina vs Naftan

Belshina vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Belshina

PPG 1.50 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

Naftan

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-111.8%0-25.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-113.3%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.8%2-17.5%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.8%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 41.7% 2.40 +5.1%

Draw 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

Away win 24.8% 35.7% 2.80 -18.3%

Over 2.5 36.3% 48.1% 2.08 -24.5%

Over 3.5 13.9% 28.2% 3.54 -30.5%

BTTS 48.6% 57.1% 1.75 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belshina1.1

Naftan0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BELSHINA · PPG 1.50

NAFTAN · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Belshina (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +5.1%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.6%

Naftan (A) 24.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belshina face Naftan in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belshina a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Naftan 25%, so Belshina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Belshina and 0.9 for Naftan (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belshina are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.00 for Naftan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 5-1.

Belshina vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Belarus - Premier League Predictions