Today / UKS SMS Lodz W vs GKS Katowice W

UKS SMS Lodz W vs GKS Katowice W Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

UKS SMS Lodz W
PPG 1.50 · HOME
1 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
GKS Katowice W
PPG 2.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.9%0-27.0%0-34.8%0-4+3.9%1 1-04.5%1-19.3%1-29.5%1-36.4%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.3%2-26.4%2-34.4%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.4%3-12.8%3-22.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 28.6%
Draw 25.1%
Away win 46.3%
Over 2.5 63.6%
Over 3.5 44.0%
BTTS 59.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-2
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%
#2 1–2 9.5%
#3 0–2 7.0%
#4 1–3 6.4%
#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UKS SMS Lodz W1.4
GKS Katowice W2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UKS SMS LODZ W · PPG 1.50

GKS KATOWICE W · PPG 2.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.30) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

UKS SMS Lodz W (H) 28.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 25.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
GKS Katowice W (A) 46.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UKS SMS Lodz W face GKS Katowice W on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UKS SMS Lodz W a 29% chance, the draw 25% and GKS Katowice W 46%, so GKS Katowice W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for UKS SMS Lodz W and 2.0 for GKS Katowice W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UKS SMS Lodz W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.30 for GKS Katowice W. This match finished 1-2.

PredictVantage

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