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Mohammedan vs Brothers Union Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 09:45

Mohammedan

PPG 1.50 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Brothers Union

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.6%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.4%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.0%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 23.8% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 20.6% — — —

BTTS 50.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.7%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mohammedan1.4

Brothers Union0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 1.50

BROTHERS UNION · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Mohammedan (H) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brothers Union (A) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mohammedan face Brothers Union in Bangladesh - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mohammedan a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Brothers Union 24%, so Mohammedan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mohammedan and 0.9 for Brothers Union (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mohammedan are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Brothers Union. This match finished 5-0.

Mohammedan vs Brothers Union Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bangladesh - Premier League Predictions