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Rahmatgonj vs Mohammedan Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 09:45

Rahmatgonj

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Mohammedan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.6%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.4%1-111.3%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 22.5% — — —

Over 2.5 52.3% — — —

Over 3.5 26.9% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0✓ 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rahmatgonj1.7

Mohammedan0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RAHMATGONJ · PPG 2.00

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.1%

Win probability 1X2

Rahmatgonj (H) 52.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mohammedan (A) 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rahmatgonj face Mohammedan in Bangladesh - Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rahmatgonj a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Mohammedan 23%, so Rahmatgonj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rahmatgonj and 0.9 for Mohammedan (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rahmatgonj are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Mohammedan. This match finished 1-0.

Rahmatgonj vs Mohammedan Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bangladesh - Premier League Predictions