Today / Bangladesh - Premier League / Arambagh vs Abahani

Arambagh vs Abahani Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 09:45

Arambagh

PPG 0.88 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Abahani

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-117.3%0-214.4%0-38.1%0-4+4.9%1 1-06.2%1-110.3%1-28.6%1-34.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-01.8%2-13.1%2-22.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 60.9% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 19.5% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.6%

A 61% / xG 0.6-1.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.3%

#2 0–2 14.4%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arambagh0.6

Abahani1.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAMBAGH · PPG 0.88

ABAHANI · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Arambagh (H) 14.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Abahani (A) 60.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arambagh face Abahani in Bangladesh - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arambagh a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Abahani 61%, so Abahani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Arambagh and 1.7 for Abahani (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arambagh are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.88 for Abahani. This match finished 0-4.

Arambagh vs Abahani Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bangladesh - Premier League Predictions