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PWD Sports Club vs Fortis Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 09:45

PWD Sports Club

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Fortis

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-118.1%0-215.1%0-38.4%0-4+5.1%1 1-06.0%1-110.0%1-28.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-01.6%2-12.7%2-22.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% 12.8% 7.80 +6.0%

Draw 24.7% 27.4% 3.65 -5.9%

Away win 61.2% 71.4% 1.40 -14.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 18.5% 28.6% 3.50 -21.1%

BTTS 46.2% 44.1% 2.27 +4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob46.2%

A 61% / xG 0.6-1.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.1%

#2 0–2 15.1%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 1–1 10.0%

#5 0–3 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PWD Sports Club0.6

Fortis1.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PWD SPORTS CLUB · PPG 0.75

FORTIS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

PWD Sports Club (H) 14.1%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +6.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.9%

Fortis (A) 61.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

PWD Sports Club face Fortis in Bangladesh - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PWD Sports Club a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Fortis 61%, so Fortis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for PWD Sports Club and 1.7 for Fortis (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PWD Sports Club are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Fortis. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 2-2.

PWD Sports Club vs Fortis Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bangladesh - Premier League Predictions