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B. Police vs Arambagh Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 09:45

B. Police

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Arambagh

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-110.7%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.6%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-17.4%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-12.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% — — —

Draw 30.7% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 34.7% — — —

Over 3.5 12.1% — — —

BTTS 47.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0✓ 10.6%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

B. Police1.2

Arambagh0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

B. POLICE · PPG 1.25

ARAMBAGH · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

B. Police (H) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arambagh (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

B. Police face Arambagh in Bangladesh - Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives B. Police a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Arambagh 23%, so B. Police are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for B. Police and 0.7 for Arambagh (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, B. Police are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Arambagh. This match finished 2-0.

B. Police vs Arambagh Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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