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Abahani vs Bashundhara K. Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 09:45

Abahani

PPG 2.38 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bashundhara K.

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.2%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.4%1-110.8%1-27.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.3%3-15.5%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.6%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% — — —

Draw 25.9% — — —

Away win 25.9% — — —

Over 2.5 59.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.0% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.6%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Abahani1.7

Bashundhara K.1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ABAHANI · PPG 2.38

BASHUNDHARA K. · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.38) > Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Abahani (H) 48.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bashundhara K. (A) 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Abahani face Bashundhara K. in Bangladesh - Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Abahani a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Bashundhara K. 26%, so Abahani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Abahani and 1.3 for Bashundhara K. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Abahani are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.88 for Bashundhara K.. This match finished 0-2.

Abahani vs Bashundhara K. Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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