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Arambagh vs Mohammedan Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 09:45

Arambagh

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Mohammedan

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-115.2%0-28.0%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.8%1-113.4%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.6%2-15.9%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.7%3-11.7%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% — — —

Draw 31.0% — — —

Away win 35.4% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 13.1% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.2%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.2%

#4 1–0 12.8%

#5 0–2✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arambagh0.9

Mohammedan1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAMBAGH · PPG 1.00

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Arambagh (H) 33.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mohammedan (A) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arambagh face Mohammedan in Bangladesh - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arambagh a 34% chance, the draw 31% and Mohammedan 35%, so Mohammedan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Arambagh and 1.1 for Mohammedan (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arambagh are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.71 for Mohammedan. This match finished 0-2.

Arambagh vs Mohammedan Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bangladesh - Premier League Predictions