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St George City vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 09:15

St George City

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Manly Utd

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-111.3%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.7%1-113.3%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-17.9%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 47.6% 2.10 -10.8%

Draw 30.3% 29.9% 3.35 +1.5%

Away win 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -9.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 52.4% 1.91 -11.8%

Over 3.5 17.2% 30.3% 3.30 -25.9%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George City1.2

Manly Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 1.56

MANLY UTD · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=42.5%

Win probability 1X2

St George City (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -10.8%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +1.5%

Manly Utd (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George City face Manly Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George City a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Manly Utd 27%, so St George City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for St George City and 1.0 for Manly Utd (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George City are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.50 for Manly Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-2.

St George City vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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