Today / Madura Utd vs PSM

Madura Utd vs PSM Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Madura Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

PSM

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-110.4%0-26.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.3%1-112.9%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.4%2-17.9%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.3%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 36.8% — — —

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.9% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.1%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Madura Utd1.2

PSM1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MADURA UTD · PPG 1.00

PSM · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Madura Utd (H) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

PSM (A) 36.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Madura Utd face PSM on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Madura Utd a 36% chance, the draw 27% and PSM 37%, so PSM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Madura Utd and 1.2 for PSM (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Madura Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for PSM. This match finished 2-0.

Madura Utd vs PSM Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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