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Broadbeach Utd vs Redlands Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 08:00

Broadbeach Utd

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Redlands

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.8%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.9%1-15.3%1-22.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.5%2-18.1%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-18.2%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-113.3%4+-27.2%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 67.6% 1.48 -6.5%

Draw 21.1% 21.7% 4.60 -1.8%

Away win 15.7% 20.0% 5.00 -12.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 80.0% 1.25 -20.1%

Over 3.5 58.9% 60.6% 1.65 -2.8%

BTTS 59.7% 76.9% 1.30 -22.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 63% / xG 3.0-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 3–0 7.6%

#4 2–0✓ 7.5%

#5 4–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Broadbeach Utd3.0

Redlands1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BROADBEACH UTD · PPG 2.50

REDLANDS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=63.2%

Win probability 1X2

Broadbeach Utd (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -6.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -1.8%

Redlands (A) 15.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Broadbeach Utd face Redlands in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Broadbeach Utd a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Redlands 16%, so Broadbeach Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Broadbeach Utd and 1.1 for Redlands (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Broadbeach Utd are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Redlands. This match finished 2-0.

Broadbeach Utd vs Redlands Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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