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B. Strikers vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 08:00

B. Strikers

PPG 2.50 · HOME

8 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Capalaba

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.6%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-16.8%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-19.0%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-18.0%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-110.0%4+-24.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 74.1% 1.35 -13.5%

Draw 21.4% 20.8% 4.80 +1.6%

Away win 14.6% 15.2% 6.60 -2.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 46.3% 56.5% 1.77 -18.1%

BTTS 52.6% 69.4% 1.44 -24.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 64% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

B. Strikers2.6

Capalaba0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

B. STRIKERS · PPG 2.50

CAPALABA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=64.1%

Win probability 1X2

B. Strikers (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -13.5%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.6%

Capalaba (A) 14.6%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

B. Strikers face Capalaba in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives B. Strikers a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Capalaba 15%, so B. Strikers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for B. Strikers and 0.9 for Capalaba (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, B. Strikers are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Capalaba. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 8-0.

B. Strikers vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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