Today / Australia - Queensland Premier League / North Star vs Logan Lightning

North Star vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

North Star

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Logan Lightning

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.1%0-25.5%0-33.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.2%1-19.6%1-28.7%1-35.3%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.2%3-14.0%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 41.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.3% — — —

BTTS 59.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.8%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Star1.6

Logan Lightning1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH STAR · PPG 0.75

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

North Star (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Logan Lightning (A) 41.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

North Star face Logan Lightning in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Star a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Logan Lightning 41%, so Logan Lightning are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for North Star and 1.8 for Logan Lightning (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Star are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.17 for Logan Lightning. This match finished 1-3.

North Star vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions