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Holland Park H. vs SC Wanderers Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Holland Park H.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SC Wanderers

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.9%0-23.9%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.7%1-19.2%1-27.4%1-33.9%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.4%3-15.5%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.0%4+-23.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 41.7% 2.40 +9.0%

Draw 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Away win 31.0% 41.7% 2.40 -25.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.0% 1.45 -7.3%

Over 3.5 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holland Park H.1.9

SC Wanderers1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLLAND PARK H. · PPG 1.20

SC WANDERERS · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Holland Park H. (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +9.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

SC Wanderers (A) 31.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holland Park H. face SC Wanderers in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holland Park H. a 45% chance, the draw 24% and SC Wanderers 31%, so Holland Park H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Holland Park H. and 1.6 for SC Wanderers (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holland Park H. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.40 for SC Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Holland Park H. vs SC Wanderers Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions