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Subiaco vs Curtin U. Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Subiaco

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Curtin U.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.6%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.8%1-19.5%1-24.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-16.9%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.9%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 61.7% 1.62 -13.8%

Draw 24.7% 25.0% 4.00 -0.7%

Away win 22.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 69.4% 1.44 -14.6%

Over 3.5 36.7% 48.1% 2.08 -23.7%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Subiaco2.1

Curtin U.1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SUBIACO · PPG 1.00

CURTIN U. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Subiaco (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.7%

Curtin U. (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Subiaco face Curtin U. in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Subiaco a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Curtin U. 22%, so Subiaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Subiaco and 1.0 for Curtin U. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Subiaco are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Curtin U.. This match finished 0-2.

Subiaco vs Curtin U. Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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