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Nedlands vs Murdoch M. Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Nedlands

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Murdoch M.

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.5%0-21.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.4%1-14.7%1-23.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.4%2-17.4%2-25.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.6%3-17.7%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-113.3%4+-29.2%4+-34.2%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 57.8% 1.73 +2.6%

Draw 20.3% 24.4% 4.10 -10.1%

Away win 20.4% 28.6% 3.50 -17.2%

Over 2.5 69.8% 73.5% 1.36 -5.1%

Over 3.5 66.1% 54.1% 1.85 +22.3%

BTTS 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 59% / xG 3.1-1.4 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 7.4%

#3 4–1 6.1%

#4 3–0✓ 5.6%

#5 1–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nedlands3.1

Murdoch M.1.4

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 66.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEDLANDS · PPG 3.00

MURDOCH M. · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=59.3%

Win probability 1X2

Nedlands (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +2.6%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.1%

Murdoch M. (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nedlands face Murdoch M. in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nedlands a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Murdoch M. 20%, so Nedlands are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Nedlands and 1.4 for Murdoch M. (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nedlands are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Murdoch M.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Nedlands vs Murdoch M. Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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