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Joondalup City vs Inglewood Utd Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Joondalup City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Inglewood Utd

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-16.9%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.4%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.2%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 54.1% 1.85 -3.1%

Draw 25.8% 27.8% 3.60 -4.3%

Away win 21.8% 31.3% 3.20 -18.1%

Over 2.5 47.6% 66.7% 1.50 -28.6%

Over 3.5 23.4% 44.1% 2.27 -28.1%

BTTS 50.2% 66.7% 1.50 -24.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.2%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Joondalup City1.7

Inglewood Utd0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JOONDALUP CITY · PPG 1.50

INGLEWOOD UTD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Joondalup City (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -3.1%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.3%

Inglewood Utd (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Joondalup City face Inglewood Utd in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Joondalup City a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Inglewood Utd 22%, so Joondalup City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Joondalup City and 0.8 for Inglewood Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Joondalup City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Inglewood Utd. This match finished 0-1.

Joondalup City vs Inglewood Utd Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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