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Gwelup Croatia vs Kingsley Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Gwelup Croatia

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kingsley

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.4%0-23.4%0-32.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-03.6%1-17.1%1-27.1%1-34.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.7%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.6%3-15.1%3-25.1%3-33.3%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.3%4+-24.2%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 42.6% 2.35 -0.4%

Draw 22.6% 27.8% 3.60 -11.2%

Away win 35.0% 40.8% 2.45 -14.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 57.8% 46.7% 2.14 +23.7%

BTTS 63.0% 71.9% 1.39 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

H 42% / xG 2.1-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2✓ 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwelup Croatia2.1

Kingsley2.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GWELUP CROATIA · PPG 1.20

KINGSLEY · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Gwelup Croatia (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -0.4%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.2%

Kingsley (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwelup Croatia face Kingsley in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwelup Croatia a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Kingsley 35%, so Gwelup Croatia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Gwelup Croatia and 2.0 for Kingsley (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwelup Croatia are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Kingsley. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Gwelup Croatia vs Kingsley Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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