Today / Australia - Western Australia State League 1 / Cockburn City vs Floreat Athena

Cockburn City vs Floreat Athena Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Cockburn City

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Floreat Athena

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-14.2%0-26.5%0-36.7%0-4+11.3%1 1-01.6%1-15.0%1-27.8%1-38.1%1-4+13.6%2 2-01.0%2-13.0%2-24.7%2-34.9%2-4+8.2%3 3-00.4%3-11.2%3-21.9%3-31.9%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 16.7% 6.00 -10.3%

Draw 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

Away win 65.1% 75.2% 1.33 -13.4%

Over 2.5 69.8% 73.5% 1.36 -5.1%

Over 3.5 62.3% 54.1% 1.85 +15.3%

BTTS 59.7% 63.3% 1.58 -5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 65% / xG 1.2-3.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 8.1%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 0–3 6.7%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 1–4 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cockburn City1.2

Floreat Athena3.1

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COCKBURN CITY · PPG 1.17

FLOREAT ATHENA · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Cockburn City (H) 13.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -10.3%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.3%

Floreat Athena (A) 65.1%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cockburn City face Floreat Athena in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cockburn City a 14% chance, the draw 21% and Floreat Athena 65%, so Floreat Athena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cockburn City and 3.1 for Floreat Athena (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cockburn City are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.00 for Floreat Athena. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Cockburn City vs Floreat Athena Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia State League 1 Predictions