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Sutherland S. vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 06:00

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.6%0-25.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.0%1-112.8%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.5%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 36.4% 2.75 +16.6%

Draw 28.4% 28.6% 3.50 -0.4%

Away win 29.2% 44.4% 2.25 -20.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 58.8% 1.70 -19.1%

Over 3.5 24.0% 36.4% 2.75 -20.4%

BTTS 52.0% 64.5% 1.55 -19.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.0%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 1–0✓ 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutherland S.1.3

NWS Spirit1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.29

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Sutherland S. (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +16.6%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.4%

NWS Spirit (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutherland S. face NWS Spirit in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutherland S. a 42% chance, the draw 28% and NWS Spirit 29%, so Sutherland S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sutherland S. and 1.2 for NWS Spirit (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutherland S. are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.29 for NWS Spirit. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Sutherland S. vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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