Today / NGU Nagoya W vs Yunogo Belle W

NGU Nagoya W vs Yunogo Belle W Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

NGU Nagoya W
PPG 1.50 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Yunogo Belle W
PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.4%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.9%1-16.5%1-23.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.1%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-18.1%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-110.8%4+-25.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.8%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 61.0%
Draw 21.1%
Away win 18.0%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 53.5%
BTTS 59.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 61% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%
#2 3–1 8.1%
#3 2–0 8.1%
#4 1–1 6.5%
#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NGU Nagoya W2.7
Yunogo Belle W1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NGU NAGOYA W · PPG 1.50

YUNOGO BELLE W · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

NGU Nagoya W (H) 61.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Yunogo Belle W (A) 18.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

NGU Nagoya W face Yunogo Belle W on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NGU Nagoya W a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Yunogo Belle W 18%, so NGU Nagoya W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for NGU Nagoya W and 1.1 for Yunogo Belle W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NGU Nagoya W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Yunogo Belle W. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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