Today / Newcastle O. vs Charlestown A.

Newcastle O. vs Charlestown A. Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Newcastle O.

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Charlestown A.

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.3%0-23.3%0-32.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-03.5%1-17.0%1-27.0%1-34.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.7%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.6%3-15.1%3-25.1%3-33.4%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.4%4+-24.3%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 35.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 58.3% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

H 42% / xG 2.1-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 2–1 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle O.2.1

Charlestown A.2.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE O. · PPG 0.33

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.17) strong but model favors Home (P=42.4%)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle O. (H) 42.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Charlestown A. (A) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle O. face Charlestown A. on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle O. a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Charlestown A. 35%, so Newcastle O. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Newcastle O. and 2.0 for Charlestown A. (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle O. are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Charlestown A.. This match finished 0-1.

Newcastle O. vs Charlestown A. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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