Today / Shakhtar vs Kolos Kovalivka

Shakhtar vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Shakhtar

PPG 2.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kolos Kovalivka

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.64) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-16.2%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.7%1-110.5%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-18.8%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.9%3-14.9%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 19.3% — — —

Over 2.5 46.6% — — —

Over 3.5 20.2% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.7%

#2 2–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shakhtar1.7

Kolos Kovalivka0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAKHTAR · PPG 2.64

KOLOS KOVALIVKA · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.64) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Win probability 1X2

Shakhtar (H) 54.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kolos Kovalivka (A) 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shakhtar face Kolos Kovalivka on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shakhtar a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Kolos Kovalivka 19%, so Shakhtar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Shakhtar and 0.6 for Kolos Kovalivka (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shakhtar are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 1.57 for Kolos Kovalivka.

Shakhtar vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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