Today / Retz vs Donau

Retz vs Donau Prediction

Ost - 27 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Retz

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Donau

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-112.7%0-211.5%0-37.0%0-4+4.8%1 1-05.9%1-110.7%1-29.7%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-02.5%2-14.5%2-24.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.0% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 60.4% — — —

Over 2.5 49.6% — — —

Over 3.5 27.6% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob47.7%

A 60% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.7%

#2 0–2 11.5%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Retz0.8

Donau1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RETZ · PPG 0.67

DONAU · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Retz (H) 17.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Donau (A) 60.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Retz face Donau on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Retz a 17% chance, the draw 23% and Donau 60%, so Donau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Retz and 1.8 for Donau (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Retz are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Donau. This match finished 0-0.

Retz vs Donau Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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