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Ararat Yerevan vs Pyunik Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Ararat Yerevan

PPG 0.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Pyunik

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 75.5% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-115.0%0-216.2%0-311.6%0-4+10.3%1 1-03.6%1-17.7%1-28.2%1-35.9%1-4+5.2%2 2-00.9%2-12.0%2-22.1%2-31.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.2%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 7.4% 10.0% 10.00 -26.0%

Draw 17.1% 20.8% 4.80 -17.9%

Away win 75.5% 80.0% 1.25 -5.6%

Over 2.5 49.6% — — —

Over 3.5 27.7% — — —

BTTS 35.3% 45.5% 2.20 -22.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob35.3%

A 76% / xG 0.5-2.1 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.2%

#2 0–1 15.0%

#3 0–3 11.6%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ararat Yerevan0.5

Pyunik2.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARARAT YEREVAN · PPG 0.20

PYUNIK · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Ararat Yerevan (H) 7.4%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -26.0%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -17.9%

Pyunik (A) 75.5%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ararat Yerevan face Pyunik in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ararat Yerevan a 7% chance, the draw 17% and Pyunik 76%, so Pyunik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Ararat Yerevan and 2.1 for Pyunik (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ararat Yerevan are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 2.00 for Pyunik. This match finished 1-0.

Ararat Yerevan vs Pyunik Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Armenia - Premier League Predictions