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ML Vitebsk vs Gomel Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

ML Vitebsk

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gomel

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-17.4%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.2%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.9%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 76.9% 1.30 -31.9%

Draw 25.8% 22.7% 4.40 +8.1%

Away win 21.8% 11.8% 8.50 +51.2%

Over 2.5 47.2% 53.2% 1.88 -11.3%

Over 3.5 21.6% 34.0% 2.94 -21.9%

BTTS 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 0–0✓ 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ML Vitebsk1.6

Gomel0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ML VITEBSK · PPG 1.67

GOMEL · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

ML Vitebsk (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -31.9%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +8.1%

Gomel (A) 21.8%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +51.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

ML Vitebsk face Gomel in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ML Vitebsk a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Gomel 22%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for ML Vitebsk and 0.8 for Gomel (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ML Vitebsk are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.75 for Gomel. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +51.2%. This match finished 0-0.

ML Vitebsk vs Gomel Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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