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Gloggnitz vs Union Mauer Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 32 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Gloggnitz

PPG 2.36 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Union Mauer

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.3%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.2%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.3%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gloggnitz1.9

Union Mauer0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GLOGGNITZ · PPG 2.36

UNION MAUER · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Gloggnitz (H) 53.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union Mauer (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gloggnitz face Union Mauer in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gloggnitz a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Union Mauer 22%, so Gloggnitz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gloggnitz and 0.8 for Union Mauer (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gloggnitz are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.36 for Union Mauer. This match finished 2-1.

Gloggnitz vs Union Mauer Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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