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Egnatia R. vs Flamurtari Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Egnatia R.

PPG 1.93 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Flamurtari

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-12.8%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.9%1-16.5%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.1%2-17.5%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.1%3-15.7%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.9%4+-15.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.7% 73.5% 1.36 +8.4%

Draw 14.8% 24.4% 4.10 -39.3%

Away win 5.5% 13.3% 7.50 -58.8%

Over 2.5 51.5% 48.8% 2.05 +5.6%

Over 3.5 29.4% — — —

BTTS 31.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob31.8%

H 80% / xG 2.3-0.4 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.1%

#2 1–0 14.9%

#3 3–0 13.1%

#4 4–0 7.5%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Egnatia R.2.3

Flamurtari0.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EGNATIA R. · PPG 1.93

FLAMURTARI · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.93), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Egnatia R. (H) 79.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +8.4%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -39.3%

Flamurtari (A) 5.5%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -58.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Egnatia R. face Flamurtari in Albania - Superliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Egnatia R. a 80% chance, the draw 15% and Flamurtari 6%, so Egnatia R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Egnatia R. and 0.4 for Flamurtari (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Egnatia R. are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.73 for Flamurtari. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Egnatia R. vs Flamurtari Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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