Today / Lithuania - 1 Lyga / Jonava vs Babrungas

Jonava vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:00

Jonava

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Babrungas

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-113.5%0-212.6%0-37.8%0-4+5.6%1 1-05.5%1-110.3%1-29.6%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.1%2-13.9%2-23.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 25.0% 4.00 -25.9%

Draw 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -1.7%

Away win 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Over 3.5 27.0% 37.2% 2.69 -16.4%

BTTS 50.6% 61.0% 1.64 -17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob50.6%

A 62% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.6%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 1–1✓ 10.3%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonava0.8

Babrungas1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JONAVA · PPG 1.75

BABRUNGAS · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Jonava (H) 14.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -25.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.7%

Babrungas (A) 61.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonava face Babrungas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonava a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Babrungas 62%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Jonava and 1.9 for Babrungas (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonava are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.33 for Babrungas. This match finished 1-1.

Jonava vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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