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Hegelmann B vs Neptuna K. Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:00

Hegelmann B

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Neptuna K.

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-114.4%0-29.6%0-34.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.3%2-15.7%2-23.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.3%3-11.7%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 14.3% 7.00 +59.3%

Draw 28.3% 22.2% 4.50 +16.4%

Away win 43.3% 73.5% 1.36 -41.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 61.7% 1.62 -25.2%

Over 3.5 18.4% 43.5% 2.30 -34.6%

BTTS 49.2% 54.3% 1.84 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 14.4%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann B0.9

Neptuna K.1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN B · PPG 0.75

NEPTUNA K. · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann B (H) 28.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +59.3%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +16.4%

Neptuna K. (A) 43.3%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -41.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann B face Neptuna K. in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann B a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Neptuna K. 43%, so Neptuna K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Hegelmann B and 1.3 for Neptuna K. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann B are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Neptuna K.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +59.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Hegelmann B vs Neptuna K. Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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