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Dainava vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 11 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:00

Dainava

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Be1 NFA

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.1%0-25.5%0-33.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.4%1-19.7%1-28.7%1-35.2%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.3%2-17.7%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.3%3-14.1%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-22.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 37.0% 2.70 -5.2%

Draw 23.7% 27.0% 3.70 -7.4%

Away win 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

Over 2.5 62.6% 60.6% 1.65 +3.3%

Over 3.5 43.6% 38.6% 2.59 +12.9%

BTTS 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2✓ 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dainava1.6

Be1 NFA1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DAINAVA · PPG 3.00

BE1 NFA · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (3.00) > Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

Dainava (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -5.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.4%

Be1 NFA (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dainava face Be1 NFA in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dainava a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Be1 NFA 41%, so Be1 NFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dainava and 1.8 for Be1 NFA (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dainava are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.20 for Be1 NFA. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Dainava vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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