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VPS vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:00

VPS

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.5%0-117.4%0-27.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-112.7%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.7%2-14.6%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.4%3-11.1%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +1.9%

Draw 38.7% 29.0% 3.45 +33.5%

Away win 31.8% 51.5% 1.94 -38.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 54.6% 1.83 -35.9%

Over 3.5 7.1% 33.3% 3.00 -47.2%

BTTS 46.2% 59.9% 1.67 -22.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

D 39% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.5%

#2 0–1 17.4%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 15.6%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VPS0.7

HJK Helsinki0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VPS · PPG 1.67

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

VPS (H) 29.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.9%

Draw 38.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +33.5%

HJK Helsinki (A) 31.8%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

VPS face HJK Helsinki in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VPS a 30% chance, the draw 39% and HJK Helsinki 32%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for VPS and 0.8 for HJK Helsinki (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VPS are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.25 for HJK Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +33.5%. This match finished 2-1.

VPS vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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