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Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 17:00

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Kolkheti Poti

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-111.9%0-25.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.4%1-113.4%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.6%2-17.6%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.9%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 46.5% 2.15 -14.4%

Draw 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

Away win 28.4% 34.5% 2.90 -10.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 16.7% 28.7% 3.48 -25.1%

BTTS 49.2% 56.5% 1.77 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 40% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aragvi Dusheti1.1

Kolkheti Poti1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 2.00

KOLKHETI POTI · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=39.8%

Win probability 1X2

Aragvi Dusheti (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -14.4%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.8%

Kolkheti Poti (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aragvi Dusheti face Kolkheti Poti in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aragvi Dusheti a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Kolkheti Poti 28%, so Aragvi Dusheti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Aragvi Dusheti and 1.0 for Kolkheti Poti (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aragvi Dusheti are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Kolkheti Poti. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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