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KuPS vs Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 15 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 16:00

KuPS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jaro

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-15.8%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.0%1-19.4%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.3%2-17.6%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.8%3-14.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-12.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 72.5% 1.38 -20.0%

Draw 26.4% 23.8% 4.20 +6.5%

Away win 15.6% 13.0% 7.70 +12.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 16.1% 36.4% 2.75 -33.4%

BTTS 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 58% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.0%

#2 2–0 16.3%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0✓ 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS1.6

Jaro0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS · PPG 2.00

JARO · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

68%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

KuPS (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -20.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.5%

Jaro (A) 15.6%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS face Jaro in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS a 58% chance, the draw 26% and Jaro 16%, so KuPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for KuPS and 0.5 for Jaro (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Jaro. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 3-0.

KuPS vs Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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