Today / Nomme Kalju vs Harju JK

Nomme Kalju vs Harju JK Prediction

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Nomme Kalju

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Harju JK

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-12.7%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.5%1-17.0%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.4%3-17.6%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.2%4+-19.0%4+-23.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.3% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 11.7% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 41.9% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.6%

H 66% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 3–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0✓ 9.5%

#5 1–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Kalju2.6

Harju JK0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME KALJU · PPG 1.67

HARJU JK · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Kalju (H) 66.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Harju JK (A) 11.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Kalju face Harju JK on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Kalju a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Harju JK 12%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Nomme Kalju and 0.7 for Harju JK (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Kalju are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Harju JK. This match finished 1-0.

Nomme Kalju vs Harju JK Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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