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Gareji Sagarejo vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 12:00

Gareji Sagarejo

PPG 2.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Merani Martvili

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-111.3%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-16.8%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.5%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 43.5% 2.30 +3.7%

Draw 31.7% 32.3% 3.10 -1.7%

Away win 23.2% 35.7% 2.80 -21.0%

Over 2.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Over 3.5 10.0% 25.5% 3.92 -36.5%

BTTS 46.2% 53.5% 1.87 -13.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.5%

#2 1–0✓ 19.1%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gareji Sagarejo1.1

Merani Martvili0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GAREJI SAGAREJO · PPG 2.67

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=45.1%

Win probability 1X2

Gareji Sagarejo (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +3.7%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -1.7%

Merani Martvili (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gareji Sagarejo face Merani Martvili in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gareji Sagarejo a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Merani Martvili 23%, so Gareji Sagarejo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gareji Sagarejo and 0.6 for Merani Martvili (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gareji Sagarejo are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.83 for Merani Martvili. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Gareji Sagarejo vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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